The Texas Gulf Coast is considered one of the most vulnerable regions in the United States to rising sea levels1. As global temperatures rise, Earth's oceans absorb a significant portion of the excess heat, causing the water to expand2,3,4. At the same time, glaciers and ice sheets are melting at progressively rapid rates, increasing the water content of the oceans5. Together, these two processes lead to rising sea levels6,7. Depending on large ocean circulation patterns, certain areas are subject to more rise as water is "pushed" into those areas8. In some areas, including Texas, the land is subsiding due to groundwater production, which causes sediments to compress, further increasing relative sea-level rise9,10.
Since 1900, the global sea level has risen 7 to 8 feet with a rate of 1.2 inches per decade since 19907,11. For the Texas coast, records from tidal gauges show that the sea level is rising faster than it has at any point in the last 3,000 years. This rate is equivalent to the height of two stacked quarters per year, which is over two inches per decade and twice that of the global average5,6,12. Such a significant rate is the result of both rising sea levels and the sinking of coastal land, called subsidence. The excessive pumping of underground water, oil, or natural gas forms pockets and causes the surface to decline10,13,14,15.
While coastal groundwater extraction is declining, this reduction in subsidence is negated by the increased rates in sea level rise9. The most recent climate projections suggest Texas will experience 10 to 12 inches of sea level rise by 205016. Climate models project global mean sea levels may increase by 1 to 4 feet by the end of the century compared to the beginning5. Texas' sea level rise will likely be at a greater rate, possibly exceeding four feet by 2100 if greenhouse gas emissions are not significantly reduced12,17. Current and future rising sea levels significantly elevate the risk and damage to critical infrastructure and the severity of hurricanes along the Texas coastline. Elevated sea levels also cause the erosion of coastal habitat, submerging both tidal wetlands and barrier islands, affecting many species of birds and fish, and removing natural barriers to coastal flooding11. Learn more about sea level rise's effect on Texas' infrastructure and floods by following the links embedded here and resources below.
