The four-team regional at Kentucky Proud Park this weekend boasts two of the top-10 teams in the RPI rankings, the Big Ten regular-season champions and a MAC team that hung with its high-major opponents this spring. Staff writer Scott Richey has a full breakdown of the field:
Kentucky (40-14)
➜ How the Wildcats got here ... Playing in the SEC means not having to play all that difficult of a nonconference schedule. League play takes care of all things résumé building, and that was the case for Kentucky. The Wildcats steadily climbed the top-25 rankings all spring thanks to 14 wins against ranked SEC teams.
➜ Who could decide their regional fate ... Ryan Waldschmidt was quite the offseason pickup. The former Charleston Southern star has simply done it all for Kentucky this spring. The 6-foot-2, 205-pound junior outfielder hits for power and average with 13 home runs and 42 RBI at a .349 clip to go with a .487 on-base percentage. He’s also stolen 23 bases and played nearly flawless defense in left field. A big reason why the Wildcats are projected to emerge with a regional title.
➜ Why they’ll win it ... The odds are stacked in the Wildcats’ favor. They’re the most proven team and ranked No. 2 nationally after surviving the gauntlet of an SEC schedule, and they have home-field advantage at Kentucky Proud Park where they went 21-6 this season. Someone other than the home team winning will require a significant upset. Two of them actually.
Indiana State (42-13)
➜ How the Sycamores got here ... The look on the Indiana State players’ faces when their regional assignment was announced during Monday’s selection show was the culmination of roughly 36 hours of disappointment. Losing in the Missouri Valley Conference tournament was likely the only reason Indiana State — ranked No. 10 in the latest RPI — isn’t hosting their own regional in Terre Haute, Ind.
➜ Who could decide their regional fate ... The Sycamores are going to face a potent offense Friday night against Illinois. The same Illini that won 21-11 on April 30 when the two teams met in Champaign. Neither junior righty Luke Hayden nor junior lefty Jared Spencer pitched in that game. Both have hit 98 mph on their respective fastballs. Pitching could mean all the difference in the rematch.
➜ Why they’ll win it ... Indiana State’s pitching doesn’t begin and end with Hayden and Spencer. Not with Brennyn Cutts another top-of-the-rotation caliber starter and solid arms out of the bullpen like Zach Davidson and Jacob Pruitt. And if games turn into a slugfest? Well, the Sycamores can keep up there, too, with Mike Sears (23 home runs) and Luis Fernandez (22) among the top 25 nationally.
Illinois (34-19)
➜ How the Illini got here ... Illinois’ path to the postseason is tied directly to its mid-March surge. The Illini emerged from the first month of nonconference play with a 5-10 record and a single win against what an eventual NCAA tournament team (Western Michigan). The rest of the regular season saw Illinois win 28 of its next 35 games and win an outright Big Ten title. Without that, there is no regional appearance.
➜ Who could decide their regional fate ... The Illini’s pitching at the Big Ten tournament was solid. That group kept Illinois at least in the hunt in with the offense going into hibernation. A team that averaged more than eight runs per game in the regular season scored just 10 total in three games in Omaha, Neb. The lineup that averaged two home runs per game needs to show back up in Lexington.
➜ Why they’ll win it ... Those three games at the Big Ten tournament — inside cavernous Charles Schwab Field — stand as an outlier offensively for this Illinois team. There have been far more offensive outbursts than not in the past two-plus months. That there’s no one, really, to pitch around with five players with double-digit home runs and three more close to that mark could certainly help spark a run to a super-regional.
Western Michigan (32-21)
➜ How the Broncos got here ... Western Michigan finished five games behind Bowling Green in the MAC standings. There would be no regional berth without a MAC tournament title. The Broncos took matters into their own hands, knocking out the top-seeded Falcons 11-0 before beating Ball State for a second time in three days for the league’s automatic berth. That win marked the most for Western Michigan since the 1993 squad won 35 games.
➜ Who could decide their regional fate ... The ball will likely be in Brady Miller’s hands in Friday’s game against Kentucky. Not an insignificant amount of pressure for the redshirt senior right-hander who has been the Broncos’ Friday night starter all season but also has a 6.48 ERA with opposing teams hitting .315 off him. There’s a way back for a title even after one loss, but it’s a difficult path.
➜ Why they’ll win it ... Western Michigan played 11 games against power-conference opponents this spring with a 4-7 record and all four wins coming against in-state rival Michigan. Notably, though, the Broncos were rarely blown out, with just two losses in run-shortened games, while being outscored 108-69 in that 11-game sample size. They’re clear underdogs in Lexington, but don’t be surprised to see them compete.
Scott Richey is a reporter covering college basketball at The News-Gazette. His email is srichey@news-gazette.com, and you can follow him on Twitter (@srrichey).
